PVC,PET,PS And PP Material Cost Trend

PVC - Polyvinyl Chloride
Global PVC prices spiked to record highs in April 2026 on Middle East supply-chain disruptions, then eased back toward pre-war levels by July as buyers stayed cautious (S&P Global). In China, the capacity-expansion cycle has effectively ended - with little or no new capacity commissioning in 2026 and net retirements approaching 0.9 Mt. Ethylene-fed plants fell into losses on higher crude-linked feedstock costs, forcing output cuts: operating rates dropped to roughly 61–65% in September–October, and September output fell 8.8% MoM and 15.0% YoY. Domestic spot prices rebounded from a multi-year low of about 4,290 yuan/t in December 2025 to roughly 4,950 yuan/t (SG-5, 21 Oct 2026), but analysts stress this is a cost- and sentiment-driven repair, not a fundamental turnaround, with high social inventories (~1.04–1.06 Mt) still capping upside.
PET - Polyethylene Terephthalate
Chinese bottle-grade PET prices stayed firm, rising roughly 18–22% from late July to 20 October 2026, with water-bottle grade quoted near 8,760–8,900 yuan/t. 2025 production reached about 17.5 Mt (+12.7% YoY), with exports taking roughly 7.5 Mt, keeping China the swing supplier for global bottle chip. The bigger story is recycled PET: France's Carbios and China's Wankai signed a binding agreement to deploy enzymatic PET recycling in Asia, with a first 50,000 t/year JV plant in China starting in Q1 2026 and a long-term ambition of 1 Mt. Circularix commissioned a second food-grade rPET plant in Ocala, Florida; ALPLA now reports ~300,000 t/year of rPCR output. rPET US prices softened to about 1,560 USD/MT in June 2026, while China's virgin–recycled price spread remains wide, giving recycled flake substitution tailwinds. EU PPWR packaging rules continue to drive brand-owner demand for bottle-to-bottle food-grade rPET.
PS - Polystyrene
China remains in an expansion cycle: about 0.95 Mt of new PS capacity is scheduled for 2026 (Shanghai Secco +300 kt, Henan Wangsu +250 kt, Huizhou Renxin Phase II +200 kt, Lianyungang Petrochemical +200 kt), pushing total capacity past 8.7 Mt and intensifying supply pressure. Renxin New Materials' third 180 kt line started in October 2025, lifting its capacity to 480 kt/year (No.1 in South China). On the high-end side, PetroChina Guangxi achieved mass production of optical-grade GPPS-550N in May 2026, adding a self-developed Chinese source for LED light-guide and optics applications. Prices traded sideways-to-lower in October: GPPS mainstream 8,800–12,000 yuan/t with HIPS similar, as styrene cost support whipsawed and downstream electronics, appliances and toy demand stayed hand-to-mouth. In the US, weaker styrene feedstock and soft packaging/appliance/automotive buying pushed PS prices down in June–October after an April spike of 4–6%.
PP - Polypropylene
China's PP capacity is set to break 50 Mt in 2026, with 3.7–5.65 Mt of planned additions - but rollout has repeatedly slipped. Only about 0.65 Mt had landed by end-September; Tarim Petrochemical's 450 kt unit started in August, Sino-Saudi Guyai (950 kt) was pushed to November, and Huajin Aramco and Inner Mongolia Rongxin moved to 2027. Actual 2026 additions are now expected at only 2.2–2.7 Mt, roughly half the original plan, which has kept supply tighter than feared. Post-holiday prices hit a year-to-date high, with East China raffia at 10,675 yuan/t on 16 October (+6.5% vs. pre-holiday), driven by Hormuz-strait geopolitical risk premia and strong crude rather than demand; commercial inventories fell to 620,800 t. China's industry federation lists PP as a "moderately high-risk" oversupplied product, and net PP exports are on track for 4–5 Mt in 2026 - a structurally larger Chinese footprint in global markets.
Common thread: Q3–Q4 2026 pricing across all four resins has been driven mainly by Middle East geopolitics and upstream feedstock costs, not by real demand. Capacity discipline is improving only in PVC; PET's genuine growth engine is recycling, while PS and PP still face Chinese capacity-led supply pressure.